Is a War on Iran Imminent?

By Elijah J. Magnier – 

The two-month ultimatum issued by U.S. President Donald Trump to Iran expires today — an ultimatum demanding that Iran accept American terms related to the nuclear deal and deliver its final answer. With no response from Tehran, Trump now finds himself cornered. He withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018 during his first term, believing he could force Iran back to the negotiating table. Instead, he waited in vain for over a year, with Iran refusing to engage. Today, the same president, now in his second term, is pursuing a different form of coercive diplomacy — beating the drums of war across the Middle East as a way to impose negotiations through force.

He used similar tactics during trade disputes with Europe (that quickly capitulated) — escalating tensions before pulling back after negotiating favourable terms. Against China, however, Trump faced a determined opponent willing to respond in kind. Now, Trump appears to believe that creating a climate of war will bring Iran to the table — especially as officials in Washington and Tel Aviv share the -false -view that Iran is “weak,” and that if military force is to be used, “it must be used now or never.”

In Tehran, diplomats maintain that diplomacy still has space and that war is not inevitable — though preparations are underway nonetheless. So far, there have been no significant changes in U.S. military deployments in the Middle East, aside from the voluntary departure of families of non-essential personnel’s directive. No formal evacuation orders, shifting or redeployment of forces or other costly escalations have been made — a sign that the U.S. government is not fully preparing for war just yet.

So, is a war with Iran truly imminent, or is the U.S. simply trying to strengthen its negotiating position ahead of the next round of talks this Sunday in Muscat, Oman?