If the United States Controls Venezuela’s Oil, Can It Override Oil-Rich Countries and Shape Energy Markets?

By Elijah J. Magnier –

The astonishing development of the United States asserting effective control over Venezuela’s vast oil reserves — the largest proven in the world — has profound implications for global energy politics, for the cartel powers of OPEC, and for the future structure of supply and price influence in international oil markets. President Donald Trump announced that “the US will control sales of sanctioned Venezuelan oil “indefinitely”. However, the idea that Washington can simply disregard OPEC, produce at will, and dictate global prices requires careful qualification. However, Trump will soon have to negotiate concrete terms and changes to the commercial and legal framework governing U.S. oil investment in Venezuela if any large-scale capital commitments are to materialise.”

The context is critical. Venezuela holds roughly 17 % of the world’s proven oil reserves, estimated at around 300 billion barrels — more than any other single country. Yet after years of underinvestment, corruption, mismanagement and sanctions, its actual oil output has collapsed to less than 1 million barrels per day — under 1 % of global supply — far below its historical peaks and well below its theoretical capacity. This illustrates a core paradox: the raw potential of Venezuelan oil is immense, but turning that potential into meaningful real-world supply will not be instantaneous or simple.

Following the U.S. military operation in January 2026 that led to the abduction of President Nicolás Maduro, American officials announced they would control Venezuela’s oil sales, starting by directing existing crude stocks onto global markets and managing future exports through U.S.-approved channels. The administration has framed this not as theft but as a means to stabilise Venezuela’s economy and ensure that oil revenues serve U.S. and Venezuelan interests.

In practice, this policy places Washington, for the first time, in a position of unprecedented leverage over a major oil producer that has historically been part of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Unlike previous U.S. engagement, primarily through diplomacy and sanctions, this approach seeks direct control over how, when and where Venezuelan oil is marketed.

However, control over marketing channels and revenue flows is very different from boosting production or unilaterally shaping global oil prices.