The Price of War: How Iran Could Turn Hormuz Into Compensation

By Elijah J Magnier –

The war on Iran did not merely destroy infrastructure, kill civilians, and destabilise the wider region. It also changed the strategic logic of the Strait of Hormuz. For decades, the waterway was treated mainly as a pressure point, a route whose closure or disruption could shake global energy markets. But the unlawful war launched against Iran created a different kind of opening. It gave Tehran a rare opportunity to redefine the Strait not only as a military lever, but as an economic instrument: a place where access and transit fees could be imposed on ships and tankers that rely on one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints. For decades, that leverage was mostly discussed in negative terms: the power to interrupt. But interruption destroys value for everyone, including Iran. A smarter strategy is monetisation.

That idea is no longer abstract. Since the war began in late February 2026, Iran has moved to tighten control over passage through Hormuz, including selective restrictions and coordination requirements for vessels seeking transit. Iran effectively closed the Strait in early March and later allowed limited categories of shipping, while other reports describe a developing toll system tied to Iranian oversight of safe passage. 

From Tehran’s point of view, the logic is straightforward. The war inflicted immense damage on Iran, not only through direct strikes but also through lost production, disrupted trade, destroyed facilities, and wider economic paralysis. The UN Development Programme has projected up to $194 billion in lost economic output across the region from the war, while the IMF has described the conflict as a major shock to energy flows and economic stability. Those are regional estimates, not a final accounting for Iran alone, but they support the broader claim that the damage runs into the hundreds of billions of dollars once direct destruction and long-term economic losses are included.