Netanyahu’s 16-Year Iran Promise Has Collapsed Into a War Without a Clear Exit

By Elijah J. Magnier

For nearly sixteen years, Benjamin Netanyahu built much of his political identity around one central promise: Israel could stop Iran, destroy its nuclear programme and, if necessary, help bring down the Islamic Republic itself. From the United Nations podium to the US Congress, from television interviews to military briefings, Netanyahu repeatedly presented Iran as an existential threat that Israel was both willing and capable of confronting, even alone if necessary. Netanyahu’s theatrical show-off in infiltrating the Iranian security apparatus, identifying and assassinating nuclear scientists and top commanders and attacking with malware several Iranian facilities produced dust in the eyes of Israel’s capability. He believed that he could do anything in Iran. This belief blinded President Donald Trump and even Netanyahu himself, giving both men a false impression of what they could achieve. Trump fails to understand that targeted assassination neither imposes deterrence nor brings down a ruling system. It is often little more than a theatrical act, particularly when directed against state and non-state ideological actors. Moreover, the United States’ long experience in regime change gave Netanyahu a psychological guarantee that his political future could be secured on the ruins of Persia.

Today, after the most direct and destructive confrontation ever fought between Israel, the United States and Iran, that narrative has collided with reality. The war demonstrated something Netanyahu spent years trying to deny: Israel cannot destroy Iran’s nuclear programme. More importantly, even with direct American support, neither Israel nor the United States proved capable of forcing Iran into collapse, surrender or regime change. Iran absorbed the assault, retaliated across the region, disrupted maritime trade, imposed economic costs and survived politically. The US and Israel conducted a 40 days war on Iran but has been negotiating for more than 45 days to convince Iran to give up on its 60% enrichment uranium and not the nuclear knowledge Iran has acquired.