Iran’s Hormuz Strategy: Raising the Price of Trump’s war Before the American Vote

Posted on by Elijah J Magnier
Protesters hold war and oil price signs beside tankers at sea
Protesters raise signs about war, oil prices, and the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz.

By Elijah J. Magnier –

The attacks on commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz are exposing a vulnerability that American military superiority cannot easily resolve: the difference between inflicting damage on Iran and securing an affordable, politically sustainable outcome. For Donald Trump, the approaching congressional elections sharpen that distinction. A president who campaigned on ending wars and lowering prices faces a confrontation in which continuing insecurity at sea threatens both promises.

There is enough evidence that Tehran is deliberately exploiting this moment and provoking Trump into another confrontation. Senior Iranian officials acknowledge that changes in the frequency and methods of attacks on tankers and ships were intended partly to influence the American elections by preventing oil prices from falling and partly to affirm the lack of US control of the security of navigation over the Strait of Hormuz.

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Published by Elijah J Magnier

Elijah J. Magnier is a veteran war correspondent and analyst specialising in military affairs, intelligence, strategic affairs and political risk. He has spent nearly four decades living and reporting inside countries at war, often from the front lines, while developing long-standing access to political leaders, military and intelligence officials, diplomats, armed non-state actors and communities directly affected by conflict. His field experience includes the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, the Iran–Iraq War, the Lebanese Civil War, the 1991 Gulf War, the wars in the former Yugoslavia, conflict in Sudan, the war in Afghanistan and Yemen, the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq and its aftermath, the 2006 Lebanon War, and the wars in Libya and Syria. He has lived for extended periods in Lebanon, Bosnia, Iraq, Iran, Libya and Syria, allowing him to follow conflicts, political transformations and regional networks beyond the limitations of short-term war reporting. His work focuses on warfare and deterrence, terrorism and counterterrorism, intelligence, political violence, armed non-state actors, regional security and the relationship between military power and political outcomes. He has also served as an adviser to the European Parliament’s Rapporteur on Iraq and Lebanon. Magnier holds a PhD in Policing and Criminal Justice from Liverpool John Moores University and an MSc in Counterterrorism Studies from the University of London. He has undertaken advanced studies in terrorism—including terrorist ideologies, financing and counterterrorism—at the University of St Andrews; terrorism and counterterrorism at Leiden University; and negotiation, including international and cross-cultural negotiation, at ESSEC Business School in Paris. His work combines sustained field access with academic analysis of war, sovereignty, deterrence and political violence.