Netanyahu Holds the Trigger: His Final War Gamble to Destroy Iran and Stay in Power

Posted on by Elijah J Magnier
News article screenshot with a suited man holding a handgun above the headline “Netanyahu Holds the Trigger: His Final War Gamble to Destroy Iran and Stay in Power,” by Elijah J. Magnier, followed by text about rising Israel-Iran tensions and possible military confrontation.
A news article examines Netanyahu’s military strategy and its implications for Israel, Iran, and regional power.

By Elijah J. Magnier

The first week of November could prove decisive for Iran, Lebanon and Israel. Expectations of renewed military confrontation are rising as Benjamin Netanyahu faces the possibility of losing power. The danger is that Israel’s political transition may coincide with a US–Israeli military campaign whose consequences extend far beyond either country’s calculations.

Iran faces the prospect of another military campaign following the 40-day war launched on 28 February 2026. Netanyahu’s apparent objective is to deepen Iran’s economic destruction, even without securing a political settlement, compelling surrender or establishing a viable alternative to its leadership. Tehran, however, has declared its readiness for a prolonged confrontation, insisting that neither Trump nor Netanyahu will dictate when hostilities end. Iran considers the next confrontation potentially decisive: it intends this to be the last war and is determined not to accept another temporary ceasefire that would allow Washington and Israel to replenish their arsenals and attack again at a time of their choosing.

In Lebanon, Israeli forces are expected to expand their operations towards Tyre, intensify the bombardment of southern towns and potentially strike Beirut’s southern suburbs. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has already threatened to extend military operations and displace residents from additional areas. Such an offensive would deepen Lebanon’s humanitarian crisis without necessarily eliminating Hezbollah’s capacity to resist.

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Published by Elijah J Magnier

Elijah J. Magnier is a veteran war correspondent and analyst specialising in military affairs, intelligence, strategic affairs and political risk. He has spent nearly four decades living and reporting inside countries at war, often from the front lines, while developing long-standing access to political leaders, military and intelligence officials, diplomats, armed non-state actors and communities directly affected by conflict. His field experience includes the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, the Iran–Iraq War, the Lebanese Civil War, the 1991 Gulf War, the wars in the former Yugoslavia, conflict in Sudan, the war in Afghanistan and Yemen, the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq and its aftermath, the 2006 Lebanon War, and the wars in Libya and Syria. He has lived for extended periods in Lebanon, Bosnia, Iraq, Iran, Libya and Syria, allowing him to follow conflicts, political transformations and regional networks beyond the limitations of short-term war reporting. His work focuses on warfare and deterrence, terrorism and counterterrorism, intelligence, political violence, armed non-state actors, regional security and the relationship between military power and political outcomes. He has also served as an adviser to the European Parliament’s Rapporteur on Iraq and Lebanon. Magnier holds a PhD in Policing and Criminal Justice from Liverpool John Moores University and an MSc in Counterterrorism Studies from the University of London. He has undertaken advanced studies in terrorism—including terrorist ideologies, financing and counterterrorism—at the University of St Andrews; terrorism and counterterrorism at Leiden University; and negotiation, including international and cross-cultural negotiation, at ESSEC Business School in Paris. His work combines sustained field access with academic analysis of war, sovereignty, deterrence and political violence.