Iraq Election Without Iran and the US: Is Al-Sadr’s Victory a Blessing or a Curse? 1/

Written by Elijah J. Magnier:

The Iraqi Parliamentary elections produced their expected results leading to Sayed Muqtada al-Sadr’s victory. In an initial count, he obtained 73 parliamentary seats and is expected to win a more significant number in the coming days following the legal period of three days after considering the numerous, serious appeals. The number of pleas claiming illegality of the results is serious especially when there are around one million uncounted votes. By the end of the appeals and when the federal court pronounces its final verdict, Iraqi politicians can search for new alliances or decide what to do with the election results. However, the polls revealed many independent MPs (30 in total) who are expected to join the Sadrist movement. 

When this happens, it will give Moqtada the ability to establish a powerful alliance with the Sunnis and Kurds. They have a large number of parliamentary seats, sufficient to nominate the new Prime Minister. Moqtada could ignore other Shia blocs, which would give him the ability to choose the Speaker, the President of the Republic, and the Prime Minister. However, this would not be a smart move and could well attract the ire and hatred of all other Shia parties. One important factor to mention in this election is that this is the first time since 2003 that neither Iran nor the US will be involved in nominating the leaders of Iraq or mediating between Iraqi politicians unlike the case for the last decade.

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Proofread by: Maurice Brasher


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