The Russian-American bras-de-fer: will Israel become the scapegoat?

Written by – Elijah J. Magnier:

The US faces a strategic threat to its interests and world dominance from China, Russia and Iran. However, the US is proceeding with steady steps towards getting the nuclear deal with Iran back on track without considering Israel’s interests and fears of seeing Tehran recovering an economy more vigorous than ever when the agreement is concluded, and sanctions are lifted. Once the necessary guarantees are offered, the US-Iran deal is expected to be sealed – not before – and it will open the door for Tehran to be generous with its allies and share some of the benefits. Iran is expected to generously provide the “Axis of the Resistance” with money, precision missiles, armed drones and update these weapons when needed. Moreover, the joint Russian-Syrian patrols recorded sorties on the borders in the occupied Golan, sending the Russian military police force to the harbour of Latakia, the joint armoured manoeuvres, and the Russian Su-35 jets scrambledIsraeli jets over Syria are worrisome signals for Tel Aviv. Does this step respond to the angry Syrian public opinion and the Syrian army’s discontent with the Russian performance towards Israel due to its last December attack on Latakia harbour? Or is it part of President Vladimir Putin’s response to America’s spoiled child, Israel, as part of the Russian deterrence in Ukraine?

The Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, travelled to Washington to discuss with President Joe Biden the gas supply to Europe replacing the Russian Nord Stream-2 pipeline (still to be inaugurated) and the Russian supplies of gas to the European continent. This visit comes after the crisis between Russia and the US over its insinuation to include Ukraine and Georgia in NATO and deploy strategic missiles that need only minutes to reach Moscow. However, Qatar does not have the ability to compensate for the shortfall of the European gas need, mainly since Europe receives 40% of its gas needs from Russia and Qatar is at its maximum production capacity. Qatar must respect the contracts concluded between it and already established Asian and its other customers.

Russia requested and obtained a written US letter of guarantee to secure Russian national security and rejected the inclusion of new western European states bordering Russia in NATO. The US is delighted to see Russia concerned about its borders and seizes the opportunity to reaffirm its control over Europe. Russia expressed little optimism about the content of the US letter.

This means that President Putin must search for other ways to convince the US that its step in Ukraine will lead to US serious concern in other parts of the world of importance to US security. Going to war is an option Russia, Ukraine and Europe would best avoid. This is why Russia may be looking for a bargaining card to convince the US that jeopardising Moscow’s security and crossing Russia’s limits may have consequences. 

Proofread by: Maurice Brasher