Has the risk of a major conflict between Israel and Hezbollah increased?

Written by Elijah J. Magnier:

For the first time in more than five months, the once-contained conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has escalated beyond its original boundaries. This shift followed Israel’s decision to expand its targeting, hitting Hezbollah sites and logistics units that had previously been untouched. Breaking with traditional rules of engagement, Israel’s actions prompted Hezbollah to respond in kind, targeting Israeli military installations in the occupied Golan Heights. This significant move by Hezbollah is aimed at forcing Israel to return to the original terms of engagement to contain the battle within a limited geography across the borders. Instead of striking deep inside Israel, Hezbollah focused on military sites along the Lebanese border and in the Syrian-occupied Golan Heights, giving Israel a chance to reset the terms of engagement. The question is: Are both belligerents on the brink of a broader conflict than before?

Since the outbreak of the Gaza conflict and the launch of Hezbollah’s “Solidarity and Support” front, Israel has intensified its offensive, using some 4-5 tonnes of explosives per day in bombing southern Lebanon and the Bekaa. In retaliation, Hezbollah has now matched this firepower, targeting Israeli positions mainly along the extensive 110-kilometre Lebanese border. This protracted front shows Hezbollah’s commitment to keeping its forces prepared, with laser-guided missiles and drones used in precise exchanges against Israeli drones. They also use Burkan rockets, which carry 250 to 500 kilograms of explosives, and Katyusha rockets, which carry 50 kilograms of explosives. In a significant operation, Hezbollah simultaneously fired in one day 100 missiles at Israeli forces in the occupied Golan, confirming its capabilities and presence along this volatile border and determination to match the Israeli firepower.