How Will Iran Respond and Why Should It Avoid Direct War with Israel?

By Elijah J. Magnier:

Israel believes that the longer Iran delays its response to the assassination of Hamas Political Bureau Chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the more time its American and European allies will have to either postpone or mitigate the anticipated retaliation through intensive negotiations and diplomatic exchanges. The United States is urging Iran to either refrain from responding altogether or to ensure that any response remains within manageable limits, avoiding civilian casualties and a significant blow that would expose Israel’s loss of deterrence and compel it to strike back, potentially igniting the entire region. So, how does Iran plan to respond? And is it preparing for a full-scale war with Israel and its allies?

The United States has mobilised fleets, along with land, air, and naval forces, supported by NATO allies, to demonstrate strength amidst escalating tensions and the potential for a worst-case scenario. This show of force is meant to signal to both Iran and Israel that any escalation could lead to Western intervention, making restraint the most prudent course of action. Iran has vowed to deliver an “out-of-the-ordinary” retaliation, but such a move risks spiralling the situation out of control.

There is no doubt that this Western military buildup is a preparation for a possible major conflict. Should hostilities break out, these forces could transition from defensive to offensive operations. However, this scenario is fraught with concerns over its military and world’s economic consequences. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions in the Mediterranean and Red Seas would choke global trade and oil supplies, sending shockwaves through the world economy. Oil prices could surge to $200 per barrel, leading to heightened inflation, soaring energy costs, and severe disruptions in the manufacturing and transportation sectors.

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