Iraq Dancing between America and Iran: Delayed Withdrawal or Political Manoeuvring?

By Elijah J. Magnier:

There are no coincidences in the constant geopolitical shifts of the Middle East. It is no coincidence that on the eve of Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian’s first foreign visit to Baghdad, and amid Iran’s readiness to respond to Israeli aggression, Iraq announced that American forces would withdraw within the next two years. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has perfected the delicate balancing act between American and Iranian influence in his country, navigating the pressures of armed irregulars with political influence in Mesopotamia and the continuing threat of Kurdish separatism in Iraqi Kurdistan. However, the announced American withdrawal remains uncertain until it happens for several reasons that must be taken into consideration.

Since taking office, President Pezeshkian has faced his first major crisis: the assassination of his esteemed guest, Ismail Haniyeh, head of the Hamas political bureau, in a Tehran guesthouse. For Iran, this was more than a violation of its sovereignty; it was a direct provocation that demanded a response. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, always eager to escalate the conflict, wanted to provoke such a response. He wants to expand the war by drawing NATO and US forces under Central Command (which now includes Israel) into the Middle East, preparing them to defend Israel and, if necessary, join the offensive against any Iranian retaliation.

US President Joe Biden, aware of Netanyahu’s ambitions, finds himself in a difficult position. Biden, whose party promotes Kamala Harris as its presidential candidate, is keen to avoid being drawn into a war with no clear end. This conflict would only prolong the life of Netanyahu’s far-right government. Netanyahu has actively sought to undermine any possible agreement with Biden to end the Gaza war. It is becoming increasingly clear that Netanyahu’s manoeuvres are part of a broader strategy to influence the US presidential election in the hope that Donald Trump, who has openly stated that he would give Israel “a free hand” to “expand its small geography”, might return to power.