Is the Great War Knocking on the Doors of Lebanon and Syria?

By – Elijah J. Magnier

Since the war on Gaza began, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has taken increasingly complex and intensive steps to deflect blame for the failure of October 7 onto the security and military apparatus. He has also pointed fingers at his powerful army for not achieving the political goals he outlined at the start of the war on Gaza. Despite this, Netanyahu has made a series of consequential decisions to devastate Gaza’s Strip, temporarily occupy parts of it as a buffer zone, and maintain forces in the Netzarim and Philadelphi corridors. His occupation forces also remain relatively engaged in the West Bank and along the northern frontiers of Lebanon and Syria.

On the northern front with Lebanon, Israeli officials have issued a stream of threats hinting at the possibility of a major war. This has been paired with military manoeuvres along the borders of Lebanon and Syria, signalling a potential ground offensive aimed at cutting off supply routes into Lebanon. Such a move would create – as some Israeli officials believe – a new reality, allowing Israel to negotiate the return of over one hundred thousand settlers displaced by the thousands of Hezbollah strikes in support of the Al-Aqsa Flood. Is there any realism to such a broader war scenario? In the realm of warfare, nothing is entirely impossible.

Israel has seemingly lost its strategic compass after eleven months of fighting on multiple fronts, failing to adopt a clear strategy for an “absolute victory”. Instead, Netanyahu has opted for a plan of patience, awaiting the outcome of the upcoming US presidential election in two months. This election, he believes, will clarify the political and military path forward, as well as his political future.

Netanyahu has capitalised on the current US administration’s constraints, leveraging President Joe Biden’s inability to take decisive action. Although he agrees to remove Hamas from power, Biden’s reluctance to end the war stems from fears that any step he takes might be seen as undermining America’s support for Israel—support that is central to US national security due to religious, economic, political, and ideological considerations. However, the outcome of the US elections will inevitably shape a new reality. This may embolden Netanyahu to prolong the war with full American backing or force him to halt it immediately. The time for evasion may soon be over.