The Right of Return: A Fragile or Permanent Ceasefire between Israel and Hamas

By Elijah J. Magnier

The Israeli cabinet’s approval of a ceasefire agreement with Hamas, effective Sunday morning (08:30 local time), marks a pivotal development in the most devastating conflict in Gaza since October 2023. The ceasefire, endorsed by a government of 24 ministers, was fraught with political tensions and has led to the resignation of Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right minister whose objections underscored the profound divisions within Israel’s leadership. This agreement resembles the proposal advanced by US President Joe Biden and Israeli negotiators in May 2024, which Hamas had accepted but which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected due to pressure from Ben-Gvir. Netanyahu’s eventual acceptance of a similar arrangement highlights the limitations of his government’s military strategy and reflects shifting political and humanitarian realities. It also underscores Israel’s failure to achieve its declared objectives, as Hamas remains undefeated in the Gaza Strip.

The newly brokered ceasefire is structured as a multi-phase agreement to establish a long-term resolution framework. While the first phase is set to proceed, the second and third stages remain undefined, lacking specific timetables and hinging on political will and external mediation. The influence of incoming US President Donald Trump looms large versus Netanyahu’s interpretation of “Israel’s right to defend itself” and re-initiate selective target-assassination attacks which may challenge the implementation of subsequent phases.

The ceasefire reflects the enduring influence of US diplomacy in the Middle East. Although initially rejected in May 2024, President Joe Biden’s earlier proposal laid the groundwork for this agreement. His administration’s focus on immediate humanitarian relief and the prospect of long-term stability shaped the ceasefire’s structure. However, the incoming Trump presidency imposed the ceasefire deal on Israel, leaving Netanyahu with no choice but to accept it and end the war. How Trump navigates the second and third phases of the agreement will be crucial in determining whether they lead to sustainable peace or a return to violence.

Netanyahu will have to face significant scrutiny from his people for rejecting the deal he proposed to Joe Biden, only to accept it in January 2025 after months of conflict. His initial refusal has led to the deaths of many Israeli prisoners and achieved no strategic gains in Gaza.

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