Syria’s New Reality: Rising Insurgencies and Iran-Turkey Power Struggles 

By Elijah J. Magnier – 

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024 has plunged Syria into a new phase of turmoil. With new authorities, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), taking control of key cities such as Damascus and Aleppo, the country’s stability remains in question. The local authorities have launched a major military push towards Tartus and Latakia, the Alawite stronghold on the western coast, and have gathered forces from Idlib, Hama, Homs and Aleppo in what has been declared a decisive operation. The Syrian defence ministry has since assured that ‘people can return home as the uprising is over and under control’, but the reality on the ground in the west coast tells a different story.

In recent days, at least 30 security personnel and between 134 and 229 Alawites have been killed in attacks in several locations, including villages along the Latakia-Aleppo road, Jableh, Qardaha, the Qasoun neighbourhood of Baniyas in rural Tartous, and parts of rural Hama such as Qamhana and Salhab. In addition to mass killings, residents have faced targeted attacks on their private property, looting, public humiliation, intimidation and abductions.

The newly appointed head of the General Intelligence Service, Anas Khattab, revealed in an official statement that initial investigations point to former military and security figures loyal to the ousted Assad regime as the masterminds behind the violence in the coastal region. Writing on X (formerly Twitter), Khattab went further, accusing foreign actors of backing these agents, though he stopped short of naming specific states. In Damascus, however, several officials have dropped strong hints about Iran’s involvement in the uprising.

Tehran, meanwhile, has been openly alarmed by the deepening chaos in Syria. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi issued a stark warning that the country was on the brink of renewed civil war and urged immediate intervention to prevent further bloodshed. Iran, long a key backer of the Assad regime, now faces a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape in which its influence is being directly challenged by rival factions and foreign actors alike.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has clashed diplomatically with Iran and expressed strong reservations about the involvement of Iraqi Shia militias such as the Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilisation Forces) in the Syrian conflict.