The Ceasefire That Never Was: A Year of Violations, Pressure, Shifting Power and Uncertainty

By Elijah J. Magnier – 

The ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel that followed the eruption of the Gaza war in late 2023 was meant to stop a wider war that failed to achieve its objectives following an Israeli ground invasion. It came after Hezbollah opened a northern front on 8 October in support of Gaza. The end of the third Israeli war agreement rested on the same principles that shaped UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which was supposed to prevent cross-border attacks, enforce withdrawals, and allow life along the frontier to stabilise. Instead, the past year has shown that the ceasefire mainly existed on paper. Lebanon became a secondary arena of the conflict, and the promises that accompanied the ceasefire have unravelled one by one. 

The Lebanese have respected the deal, and Hezbollah removed all warehouses from south of the Litani River, regardless of the continuous Israeli violation of Lebanon’s sovereignty. The Lebanese Army confirmed that there were no longer Hezbollah warehouses in the area covered by the UNSCR 1701 and has confiscated 230,000 weapons.

A whole year has passed, and, during this time, Israel has killed around 335 people in Lebanon, 96,000 were displaced, 24 southern villages were destroyed and prevented from returning to their homes, and a total of 240,000 homes were damaged all over Lebanon. Meanwhile, Israel, which violates Lebanon’s sovereignty over 10,000 according to the UNIFIL report, is still claiming that a “cessation of hostilities” is in place, even if almost half of the Israeli settlers deployed along the Lebanese borders refused to return. The World Bank estimates the damage Israel has inflicted on Lebanon is 5.1 billion dollars. 

Through every targeted assassination, airstrike and bombardment, Israel presents its actions as enjoying a free mandate from the United States to strike what Tel Aviv defines as ‘potential menace’ and, oddly, pretending to ‘respect the UN resolution’. Israel occupied at least five strategic hills in the south of Lebanon and, according to the UNIFIL forces, added another 4000 sqm of Lebanese land inside a cement wall it has raised along part of the border. But Israel gave Lebanon until the end of the year 2025 to disarm Hezbollah or face a devastating war. What can Lebanon possibly do?