What Are the Regional and Global Consequences If the Islamic Republic of Iran Collapses?

By Elijah J. Magnier

Since President Donald Trump returned to power, his decisions and conduct have drawn intense scrutiny and distraction, often amplified by the daily theatricality that has come to characterise his political style. Yet international politics is not a stage for spectacle, and a single miscalculated or unlawful war could trigger cascading consequences far beyond its point of origin, destabilising entire regions and harming dozens of states. The collapse of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in particular, would not resemble a conventional regime change, but a systemic rupture with unpredictable geopolitical, security, and societal repercussions. It would represent one of the most consequential geopolitical ruptures of the modern era, producing immediate regional shockwaves and long-term global repercussions. 

Iran is not comparable to Iraq in 2003, Afghanistan in 2001, or Libya in 2011. It is a large, centralised state of more than 90 million people, with entrenched institutions, a powerful security apparatus, and a strategic geography linking the Gulf, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Levant. If it were to fall suddenly, the consequences would extend far beyond its borders and rapidly reshape the Middle East’s security landscape. Collapse would not follow a single path. It could emerge from an internal struggle leading to fragmentation, or competing centres of armed authority replacing a unified state.

Iran’s internal architecture makes this especially dangerous. Power is not concentrated solely in a civilian administration but distributed across the Revolutionary Guard, Basij networks, the regular army, intelligence bodies, and a wider constellation of regional allied movements. If central authority fractures, these actors would not disappear: Weapons depots, missile stockpiles, drones, and paramilitary networks would become contested assets.