Can America Blind Iran in the Strait of Hormuz?

Iran’s pre-emptive turn and the limits of military control over the world’s most important maritime chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz is not an open ocean in which a ship can disappear across thousands of square kilometres

By Elijah J. Magnier

Iran has formally widened the logic of its war with the United States. On Friday, army spokesman Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia said that Iranian forces had been moving towards “pre-emptive warfare” since the June 2025 conflict and that recent strikes had served both deterrent and pre-emptive purposes. He argued that Iran could act before an anticipated American or Israeli attack rather than wait to absorb the first blow.

The declaration followed—not immediately accompanied—a new series of Iranian missile and drone attacks on American facilities and allied territory across the region. Earlier in the week, Iran said it had fired ballistic missiles at US positions in Jordan, including Camp Titin and Prince Hassan Air Base. Jordan reported intercepting ten of thirteen missiles that entered its airspace, with three falling in uninhabited areas. Iranian assertions that US personnel, aircraft or air-defence systems were destroyed have not been independently verified.

The distinction matters. Tehran is no longer presenting every operation solely as retaliation. It is appropriating the anticipatory logic long invoked by Israel and the United States: strike when an enemy attack is judged to be approaching, deny the adversary the initiative and impose uncertainty over when the next round will begin. That is a consequential doctrinal change.

Washington has responded with another round of sanctions, added to the thousands of restrictions already imposed on Iran. This suggests that the United States increasingly recognises the limits of controlling Iran through military pressure alone. Unable to compel Tehran from the outside, Washington appears increasingly determined to weaken the state and intensify pressure from within to destroy its ruling system.