Iraq’s Hashd al-Shaabi Bill: Sovereignty Tested Amid US and UK Pressure

By Elijah J. Magnier –

I Iraq once again finds itself at the centre of a strategic tug-of-war. A draft law to institutionalise the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF, or Hashd al-Shaabi) has reignited fierce debate in Baghdad and triggered alarm in Washington and London, where officials warn that its passage would cross a red line. Both the United States and the United Kingdom have already threatened sanctions, not only against Iraq as a state but also against influential Iraqi political figures.

At the heart of Washington’s objections lies a broader geopolitical concern: the United States cannot accept the consolidation of Iran’s influence through a wealthy and militarily capable ally at the heart of the Arab world. A legally entrenched PMF would represent not only a powerful Shia force resistant to Israeli interests but also a bulwark against U.S. and Israeli freedom of manoeuvre in the region. In particular, such a development would complicate Washington and Tel Aviv’s ability to conduct covert or joint sabotage operations against Tehran, whether by limiting access across Iraq’s borders or by strengthening an Iranian-aligned security architecture hostile to Israel’s normalisation agenda.

For Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, the stakes could not be higher. On one side, Shia blocs in the Coordination Framework — the backbone of his governing coalition — regard the PMF as central to Iraq’s sovereignty and security. On the other, his administration fears that a direct clash with Washington could devastate Iraq’s fragile economy and unravel the limited stability achieved since the defeat of ISIS. This tension exposes Baghdad’s dilemma: how to reconcile domestic political imperatives with the hard constraints imposed by external powers.

Iraq’s parliament has 329 seats, and for any law to pass at least 166 votes — a simple majority — are required. Here lies the political crux. The Shia blocs of the Coordination Framework, which together control close to 170 seats, could in theory push the bill through. Yet unity within the bloc is not guaranteed, while Sunni and Kurdish parties remain firmly opposed. Sunni MPs argue that the PMF has been implicated in abuses in Sunni-majority provinces and fear that granting it full legal entrenchment would cement sectarian imbalance. Kurdish parties, meanwhile, view the bill as a centralising manoeuvre from Baghdad that undermines federalism and erodes Kurdish autonomy. Without cross-sectarian legitimacy, the legislation risks deepening Iraq’s political fractures — but in purely numerical terms, the Shia bloc alone could still deliver a parliamentary victory if it maintains cohesion.

Elections as a Pressure Point